A combined long-form note covering the month in news, the cross-venue perp landscape, and the macro backdrop.
What moved the market this month — themes, headline events, and the stories worth tracking into next month.
Overview of the market open interest and volume in the last 30 days.
| TODAY | 1M AGO | 3M AGO | 12M AGO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDT | $190B | $187B +1.5% | $184B +3.3% | $152B +24.7% |
| USDC | $77B | $79B -2.0% | $74B +4.7% | $60B +27.6% |
| Total | $267B | $265B +0.4% | $257B +3.7% | $212B +25.6% |
Rates, FX, equity, commodities, and credit.
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Equities· 5 | +1.3% | +5.2% | +11.2% | +32.8% | 5 items |
| S&P 500 | +2.0% | +6.9% | +7.4% | +23.3% | 7,354 |
| Nasdaq | +3.9% | +13.7% | +11.3% | +34.6% | 25,871 |
| EuroStoxx 50 | -0.5% | -4.1% | +0.9% | +7.8% | 5,851 |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.9% | +4.7% | +18.8% | +59.5% | 59,804 |
| MSCI EM (EEM) | +0.4% | +5.0% | +17.5% | +38.6% | 64.26 |
| › Rates· 5 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 5 items |
| US 3M yield | -1bp | -3bp | +3bp | -66bp | 3.58% |
| US 5Y yield | +31bp | +68bp | +61bp | +25bp | 4.33% |
| US 10Y yield | +28bp | +59bp | +50bp | +19bp | 4.67% |
| US 30Y yield | +19bp | +48bp | +34bp | +24bp | 5.18% |
| Long UST (TLT) | -3.0% | -7.3% | -4.7% | -3.5% | 83.02 |
| › Credit· 2 | -1.4% | -3.0% | -2.2% | -0.0% | 2 items |
| High Yield (HYG) | -1.3% | -1.9% | -1.6% | -0.0% | 79.35 |
| Inv. Grade (LQD) | -1.6% | -4.0% | -2.8% | +0.0% | 107.1 |
| › FX· 4 | -0.1% | +0.5% | +0.2% | +3.0% | 4 items |
| DXY | +1.2% | +1.6% | +1.0% | -1.1% | 99.30 |
| EUR/USD | -1.2% | -2.2% | -1.3% | +3.2% | 1.16 |
| USD/JPY | +1.3% | +3.9% | +1.7% | +9.7% | 159.1 |
| GBP/USD | -1.6% | -1.3% | -0.6% | +0.2% | 1.34 |
| › Commodities· 8 | +2.6% | +16.8% | +25.3% | +58.1% | 8 items |
| WTI Crude | +2.6% | +65.3% | +87.7% | +71.9% | 107.8 |
| Brent Crude | -2.4% | +58.2% | +82.9% | +69.8% | 111.3 |
| Nat Gas | +12.5% | +3.4% | -15.5% | +0.0% | 3.11 |
| Gold | -2.3% | -9.6% | +4.2% | +39.6% | 4,506 |
| Silver | +1.8% | -3.5% | +6.7% | +131.6% | 74.83 |
| Platinum | -2.3% | -8.2% | -4.9% | +92.5% | 1,934 |
| Copper | +4.0% | +6.4% | +9.5% | +33.1% | 6.16 |
| Wheat | +7.0% | +22.0% | +31.6% | +26.1% | 667.2 |
| › Vol· 5 | +6.6% | +8.4% | +46.1% | +21.6% | 5 items |
| VIX | +6.9% | -8.0% | +20.8% | -0.4% | 18.06 |
| VXN | +10.6% | -3.5% | +23.2% | +9.7% | 24.09 |
| MOVE | +18.4% | +32.9% | +33.4% | -17.8% | 85.32 |
| OVX | -2.9% | +41.6% | +141.6% | +91.8% | 72.89 |
| GVZ | -0.0% | -21.1% | +11.3% | +24.6% | 26.63 |
| › Crypto· 2 | -2.2% | +12.7% | -20.0% | -21.3% | 2 items |
| Bitcoin | +1.3% | +16.3% | -11.7% | -26.8% | 77,266 |
| Ethereum | -5.6% | +9.0% | -28.2% | -15.8% | 2,130 |
| Instrument | MTD | 3M | YTD | 12M | LAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| › Rates & curve· 3 | mixed | mixed | mixed | mixed | 3 items |
| 10Y - 3MYield curve slope · Fed's preferred recession indicator | +29bp | +62bp | +48bp | +86bp | 1.09% |
| 30Y - 5YLong-end steepness · long-duration term premium | -11bp | -21bp | -27bp | -1bp | 0.85% |
| MOVE / VIX>6 = rate stress dominates, <4 = equity stress dominates | +10.7% | +44.4% | +10.4% | -17.4% | 4.72 |
| › Credit· 1 | +0.3% | +2.2% | +1.2% | -0.0% | 1 items |
| HYG / LQDHY vs IG total return · credit risk preference | +0.3% | +2.2% | +1.2% | -0.0% | 0.74 |
| › Risk appetite· 3 | -0.1% | +5.2% | -1.9% | +10.4% | 3 items |
| Copper / GoldPro-growth vs flight-to-safety · tracks 10Y yields | +6.5% | +17.8% | +5.1% | -4.7% | 0.00 |
| AUDJPYCarry-trade FX pair · classic RORO indicator | +0.0% | +4.3% | +8.0% | +20.8% | 113.1 |
| ETH / BTCIntra-crypto risk-on signal | -6.8% | -6.3% | -18.7% | +15.1% | 0.03 |
| › Equity factor· 3 | -1.5% | +1.9% | +7.8% | +22.4% | 3 items |
| SPHB / SPLVHigh-beta vs low-vol US equity · risk preference | +0.8% | +10.8% | +11.2% | +49.0% | 1.82 |
| IWM / SPYSmall caps vs large caps · domestic risk-on | -3.8% | -3.3% | +3.1% | +5.9% | 0.37 |
| EEM / SPYEM equity vs US · global risk-on | -1.6% | -1.8% | +9.2% | +12.4% | 0.09 |
| › Vol regime· 2 | -0.5% | +24.3% | +57.4% | +46.0% | 2 items |
| VIX9D / VIX>1 = backwardation/stress, <1 = contango/calm | +8.3% | -5.3% | +14.8% | -0.6% | 0.92 |
| OVX / VIXOil vol vs equity vol · geopolitics tell | -9.2% | +53.8% | +100.0% | +92.7% | 4.04 |
| › Energy· 1 | -60.7% | -32.0% | +2.3% | +23.2% | 1 items |
| Brent - WTIRegional supply imbalance · geopolitics premium | -60.7% | -32.0% | +2.3% | +23.2% | 3.51 |
| › FX & dollar· 1 | +3.7% | +12.5% | -3.0% | -29.2% | 1 items |
| DXY / GoldReal-rate proxy · USD strong + Gold weak = high real rates | +3.7% | +12.5% | -3.0% | -29.2% | 0.02 |